At the MIT Bitcoin Expo in Cambridge, Christian Catalini stated that "40% to 50% of ICOs are currently underwater – trading at a price lower than the initial offering price."
Having studied the data for 2018, using the ICO statistics from Tokendata, News Bitcoin Com confirms that this is a reasonable estimate. In fact, 76% of the 74 ICOs completed this year are at a loss, given that the ICO statistics calculate ROI based on the pre-sale price of the token, rather than a public sale.
Ether has fallen in price since the beginning of the year, reducing the average yield of each dollar invested in the ICO. These projects can continue to generate healthy profits, as their infrastructure develops and markets are gaining momentum. But, as research says, investing in ICO is now an extremely risky business that is statistically unlikely to bring short-term profits.
In 2017, ICOs generated an average ROI of 573% according to Coinist. This year, just one ICO – Zilliqa – has reached that figure, delivering 12x. Last year’s big hitters, by way of comparison, were
- Spectrecoin (46,000%),
- Storj (7,600%),
- Populous (5,400%)
- Qtum (4,500%).
For the ICOs in 2018, perhaps, everything is still ahead, but right now investors are unlikely to see big profits, research reports. Large-scale discounting at this stage means that by the time of public sale, as a rule, a few tokens are left, and their valuation, combined with market conditions, makes the profit almost impossible.