Bitcoin to be Like a Flu, Barclays Says

Analyst Joseph Abate found a lot of common between "digital gold" and infection
10 April 2018   694

Barclays Plc analyst has found enough similarities between bitcoin and infectious diseases in order to build a valuation model for the asset, originating from the world of epidemiology. This is reported by Bloomberg.

The analyst broke the pool of potential bitcoins-investors into 3 groups: susceptible, infected and unreceptive. He argues that when the price rises, the infection spreads.

As more of the population become asset holders, the share of the population available to become new buyers -- the potential ‘host’ population -- falls, while the share of the population that are potential sellers (‘recoveries’) increases. Eventually, this leads to a plateauing of prices, and progressively, as random shocks to the larger supply population push up the ratio of sellers to buyers, prices begin to fall. That induces speculative selling pressure as price declines are projected forward exponentially.
 

Joseph Abate

Analyst, Bloomberg

A similar dynamics is observed in the spread of infectious diseases, when the epidemic reaches the so-called threshold of immunity - "the point at which a sufficient portion of the population becomes immune such that there are no more secondary infections" the analyst writes.

The main variable that determines when the BTC price is replaced by a fall is the share of the population who is aware of bitcoin and who wants to invest (susceptible population), Barclays says. Studies show that in developed economies, everyone knows about bitcoin, and the share of the susceptible population is small, the analyst writes.

Analyst team believes that the speculative froth phase of cryptocurrency investment -- and perhaps peak prices -- may have passed.

SEC to Need More Info on BTC ETF

SEC is gathering more input from the public – to date, according to the agency, more than 1,400 comments have been submitted
21 September 2018   134

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the beginning of a formal process for considering the application for the creation of bitcoin-ETF from the New York companies VanEck and SolidX. Nevertheless, the agency appealed to the community for more information. This is stated in the document published on the SEC website.

Institution of such proceedings is appropriate at this time in view of the legal and policy issues raised by the proposed rule change. Institution of proceedings does not indicate that the Commission has reached any conclusions with respect to any of the issues involved. Rather, as described below, the Commission seeks and encourages interested persons to provide comments on the proposed rule change.
 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission

At the moment, the SEC received about 1,400 comments.

According to the document, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has signed an agreement on the exchange of data on bitcoin transactions, trading and the state of the market with the cryptocurrency trading platform with Gemini.

The agency asked commentators to clarify the position of Gemini in the digital currency market and assess the likelihood of increased volatility at this site in connection with possible trades of bitcoin-ETF.

So, before September 30, the department had to decide on whether to approve, deny or initiate the proceedings. The SEC chose the latter, which is likely to delay the process until the next year.