Bitcoin to be Like a Flu, Barclays Says

Analyst Joseph Abate found a lot of common between "digital gold" and infection
10 April 2018   921

Barclays Plc analyst has found enough similarities between bitcoin and infectious diseases in order to build a valuation model for the asset, originating from the world of epidemiology. This is reported by Bloomberg.

The analyst broke the pool of potential bitcoins-investors into 3 groups: susceptible, infected and unreceptive. He argues that when the price rises, the infection spreads.

As more of the population become asset holders, the share of the population available to become new buyers -- the potential ‘host’ population -- falls, while the share of the population that are potential sellers (‘recoveries’) increases. Eventually, this leads to a plateauing of prices, and progressively, as random shocks to the larger supply population push up the ratio of sellers to buyers, prices begin to fall. That induces speculative selling pressure as price declines are projected forward exponentially.
 

Joseph Abate

Analyst, Bloomberg

A similar dynamics is observed in the spread of infectious diseases, when the epidemic reaches the so-called threshold of immunity - "the point at which a sufficient portion of the population becomes immune such that there are no more secondary infections" the analyst writes.

The main variable that determines when the BTC price is replaced by a fall is the share of the population who is aware of bitcoin and who wants to invest (susceptible population), Barclays says. Studies show that in developed economies, everyone knows about bitcoin, and the share of the susceptible population is small, the analyst writes.

Analyst team believes that the speculative froth phase of cryptocurrency investment -- and perhaps peak prices -- may have passed.

SEC to Decide on Bitcoin ETF until Feb 27 2019

Despite this news, Bitcoin price hit another bottom - $3400 this time
07 December 2018   97

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a notice stating that consideration of a decision on an application to start Bitcoin-ETF from VanEck and SolidX with the assistance of CBOE will last until February 27 of next year.

According to the SEC rules, the period for consideration of this decision cannot be extended yet. Thus, the Commission on maximum uses the allotted time, and February 27 will be the final date for the decision on this application.

The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider this proposed rule change.
 

Securities and Exchange Commision

According to representatives of the SEC, to date, the Commision has received more than 1600 comments on this application.

Despite this news, Bitcoin price hit another bottom - $3400 this time.