Bitcoin Bear Market to Last for 18 Months, BitMEX Says

Arthur Hayes is not super optimistic about Bitcoin in the nearest future
01 November 2018   481

The price of bitcoin and trading volumes may continue to fall for another one and a half years. Arthur Hayes, head of the BitMEX cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform, expressed this opinion in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness. I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.

Arthur Hayes

He added that trading volumes may be even lower than now.

While the head of BitMEX sees a bearish mood in the market, other representatives of the industry are still more optimistic

The market is blowing off some steam right now. I think the market is probably going through some healthy consolidation but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies.

Will Warren

Co-founder, 0x

The head of the Hacera project Jonathan Levy agrees with this position. According to him, Bitcoin is undoubtedly getting cheaper, but he himself and the underlying technologies are used more and more often. 

The price of bitcoin is undoubtedly in a bear market but in the application of bitcoin and other blockchain projects we are in fact in a bull market. Most of the EU banks are actively investing in blockchain and that all originally stems from bitcoin.

Jonathan Levi

Head, Hacera

Despite the decline in trading volumes and volatility, contracts for an amount in excess of $ 1 billion are concluded on BitMEX daily. Earlier this year, the amount of contracts on the platform exceeded $ 8.5 billion per day. 

BTC Volatility to Fall by 98% in a Year

Analyst believe that low volatility indicates a decline in speculative trading 
18 January 2019   91

Since January last year, the first cryptocurrency volatility has decreased by 98%. So, if on January 16, 2018, it was $ 3,468, then a year later - only $ 61, CoinDesk reports.

Note, the daily volatility over the past year decreased from 9.1% to 3.6%, although on December 16, 2018 was about 26%.

In absolute terms, the maximum daily volatility in the first quarter was $ 973, and in the following: $ 345, $ 245 and $ 195, respectively.

At the beginning of 2019, this figure also did not exceed $ 200, and on January 12 it reached a minimum value of $ 45.17.

Analyst stressed that low volatility indicates a decline in speculative trading and an approach to a sharp price movement.

In his opinion, Bitcoin will soon leave the range of $ 3,500- $ 3,700 in favor of the bears. At the moment, the first cryptocurrency is trading at around $ 3,590.