The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week extended the deadline for consideration of an application to launch Bitcoin-ETF of Bitwise. This week, the regulator will have to make another decision on Bitcoin-ETF - by VanEck / SolidX. According to lawyer Jake Chervinsky, the future decision will be made in “unusual” circumstances.
SEC had to say its word in connection with the application of Bitwise by last Thursday, and the deadline for VanEck falls on this Tuesday. As noted by Chervinsky, in previous similar cases, the SEC combined solutions for different ETFs and published them on the same day. For example, in March, a delay for ETF Bitwise and VanEck was announced on the same day. Last year, the SEC simultaneously issued three waivers for different ETFs, although their deadlines were separated by weeks, while the Bitwise and VanEck deadlines only 5 days apart.
Based on these observations, Chervinsky concludes that this week’s ETF VanEck decision may be different from the next extension. However, according to the lawyer, community members should not hope too much for a positive outcome.
First, I'd be shocked if the SEC approved the first ever bitcoin ETF after six years of denials without taking all the time allowed by law. Moving slowly makes the SEC appear thoughtful & thorough.
In addition, the current market situation is not conducive to ETF approval. Bitcoin has been volatile lately, and investigations related to fraud and manipulation, for example against Bitfinex, are only gaining momentum. Finding factors that would push the SEC to a positive decision in such conditions is not easy.
The third and most important thing: in the last decision on ETF Bitwise, the reasons are mentioned in excess, because of which it is impossible to count on approval in the near future. These are questions about the nature of the Bitcoin market, and its vulnerability to manipulation, and about fake trading volumes.
If the SEC thinks all of these topics are grounds for denying Bitwise, then it certainly must view them as grounds for denying VanEck too. As a result, if VanEck were to have any chance of approval, the SEC would need to delay & ask all these same questions to them as well.
He also does not exclude the possibility that SEC employees might simply not have time to prepare a solution for ETF VanEck last week. Thus, Chervinsky assesses the probability of postponement at 75%, failure - at 24.9%, approval - at 0.1%.