Study: Bitcoin’s Worth to lose $44 Billion by Year’s End

Swiss researchers defined that bitcoin’s market plowback may fall as much as $44 billion, or 35% (at the writing time), by the end of 2018
09 April 2018   197

If the sums got by ETH Zurich researchers are right, by year’s end bitcoin’s cost  should get a decrease by as much as $44 billion, some 35% below its current $121 billion (as of this writing). The recent study "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?" in join with a Generalized Metcalfe’s Law and the LPPLS Model by Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, et al, of ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics, and Swiss Finance Institute at the University of Geneva, Switzerland, respectively, is  endeavoring to make a prediction.

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

Spencer Wheatley, Professor of Business Risks, ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics.

Nowadays it is known as the network effect. Mr. Wheatley guesses the number of bitcoin users is declining. The authors of the study confess the appropriate problems in determining the numbers of users. Most enthusiasts have multiple wallet address, and so counting them seems like a deadlock. But if it’s true price declines shed users, it’s likely just as true price increases bring more users. Instead, researchers use market capitalization as a better evaluation for user growth or contraction.

According to the published report, the predicted values for the market cap discover a present over-estimation of at least four times. The Metcalfe support line offer current values around 44, 22, and 33 billion USD, in contrast to the actual current market cap of 170 billion USD. Further, constant user growth in line with the decline of active users starting in 2012, the end of 2018 Metcalfe  forecastings for the market cap are 77, 39, and 64 billion USD respectively, which is still less than half of the present market cap. These results are found to be reliable towards to the chosen fitting window.

So, the current market looks similar to that of early 2014, which was accompanied by a year of sideways and downward dynamics. Some separate fundamental development would need to exist to justify such high valuation, which the scientists are uninformed of.

Australia joins the crypto-discussions arena with Bitcoin & Blockchain Fair

The inaugural Bitcoin and Blockchain Fair will be presented at the Sydney Showgrounds on May 12-13 with an all-round program about cryptocurrency and blockchain
21 April 2018   24

A high profile event in cryptocurrency and blockchain is coming to Sydney, Australia on May 12-13 – Bitcoin and Blockchain Fair. The conference will provide a platform to interact and discuss on all areas of the cryptocurrency and blockchain technology sectors (fintech, investment, venture capital, regulation, ICO, etc.), current opportunities and perspectives in the form of a Forum and an Exhibition Showcases.

The Exhibition Showcase that will allow to exhibit showcases and engage with crypto services providers, government and fintech startups. Forum is the bulk of the conference and is comprised of 2-day sessions to allow international speakers and industry leaders of the crypto and blockchain sectors a chance to share their expertise. May 12 is focusing on cryptocurrency and ICO engagement; May 13 wil cover blockchain technology overview, case studies, solutions and future trends.

The fair is organized by ABF Business and Principal Sponsor Coinspot. Exhibitors and Speakers include attendees from Asia, Europe and USA together with key Australian high profile crypto & blockchain enterprises. The full agenda of the event can be found here.