Study: Bitcoin’s Worth to lose $44 Billion by Year’s End

Swiss researchers defined that bitcoin’s market plowback may fall as much as $44 billion, or 35% (at the writing time), by the end of 2018
09 April 2018   648

If the sums got by ETH Zurich researchers are right, by year’s end bitcoin’s cost  should get a decrease by as much as $44 billion, some 35% below its current $121 billion (as of this writing). The recent study "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?" in join with a Generalized Metcalfe’s Law and the LPPLS Model by Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, et al, of ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics, and Swiss Finance Institute at the University of Geneva, Switzerland, respectively, is  endeavoring to make a prediction.

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

Spencer Wheatley, Professor of Business Risks, ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics.

Nowadays it is known as the network effect. Mr. Wheatley guesses the number of bitcoin users is declining. The authors of the study confess the appropriate problems in determining the numbers of users. Most enthusiasts have multiple wallet address, and so counting them seems like a deadlock. But if it’s true price declines shed users, it’s likely just as true price increases bring more users. Instead, researchers use market capitalization as a better evaluation for user growth or contraction.

According to the published report, the predicted values for the market cap discover a present over-estimation of at least four times. The Metcalfe support line offer current values around 44, 22, and 33 billion USD, in contrast to the actual current market cap of 170 billion USD. Further, constant user growth in line with the decline of active users starting in 2012, the end of 2018 Metcalfe  forecastings for the market cap are 77, 39, and 64 billion USD respectively, which is still less than half of the present market cap. These results are found to be reliable towards to the chosen fitting window.

So, the current market looks similar to that of early 2014, which was accompanied by a year of sideways and downward dynamics. Some separate fundamental development would need to exist to justify such high valuation, which the scientists are uninformed of.

SEC to Need More Info on BTC ETF

SEC is gathering more input from the public – to date, according to the agency, more than 1,400 comments have been submitted
21 September 2018   145

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the beginning of a formal process for considering the application for the creation of bitcoin-ETF from the New York companies VanEck and SolidX. Nevertheless, the agency appealed to the community for more information. This is stated in the document published on the SEC website.

Institution of such proceedings is appropriate at this time in view of the legal and policy issues raised by the proposed rule change. Institution of proceedings does not indicate that the Commission has reached any conclusions with respect to any of the issues involved. Rather, as described below, the Commission seeks and encourages interested persons to provide comments on the proposed rule change.
 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission

At the moment, the SEC received about 1,400 comments.

According to the document, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has signed an agreement on the exchange of data on bitcoin transactions, trading and the state of the market with the cryptocurrency trading platform with Gemini.

The agency asked commentators to clarify the position of Gemini in the digital currency market and assess the likelihood of increased volatility at this site in connection with possible trades of bitcoin-ETF.

So, before September 30, the department had to decide on whether to approve, deny or initiate the proceedings. The SEC chose the latter, which is likely to delay the process until the next year.