Study: Bitcoin’s Worth to lose $44 Billion by Year’s End

Swiss researchers defined that bitcoin’s market plowback may fall as much as $44 billion, or 35% (at the writing time), by the end of 2018
09 April 2018   506

If the sums got by ETH Zurich researchers are right, by year’s end bitcoin’s cost  should get a decrease by as much as $44 billion, some 35% below its current $121 billion (as of this writing). The recent study "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?" in join with a Generalized Metcalfe’s Law and the LPPLS Model by Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, et al, of ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics, and Swiss Finance Institute at the University of Geneva, Switzerland, respectively, is  endeavoring to make a prediction.

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

Spencer Wheatley, Professor of Business Risks, ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics.

Nowadays it is known as the network effect. Mr. Wheatley guesses the number of bitcoin users is declining. The authors of the study confess the appropriate problems in determining the numbers of users. Most enthusiasts have multiple wallet address, and so counting them seems like a deadlock. But if it’s true price declines shed users, it’s likely just as true price increases bring more users. Instead, researchers use market capitalization as a better evaluation for user growth or contraction.

According to the published report, the predicted values for the market cap discover a present over-estimation of at least four times. The Metcalfe support line offer current values around 44, 22, and 33 billion USD, in contrast to the actual current market cap of 170 billion USD. Further, constant user growth in line with the decline of active users starting in 2012, the end of 2018 Metcalfe  forecastings for the market cap are 77, 39, and 64 billion USD respectively, which is still less than half of the present market cap. These results are found to be reliable towards to the chosen fitting window.

So, the current market looks similar to that of early 2014, which was accompanied by a year of sideways and downward dynamics. Some separate fundamental development would need to exist to justify such high valuation, which the scientists are uninformed of.

HashFlare Users to Face Withdrawal Issues

Looks like Bitcoin cloud mining is not super profitable
18 July 2018   108

Users of HashFlare mining pool can't withdraw their funds, while their contracts are threatened with a temporary ban. Even lower restrictions on withdrawal of funds in the amount of 0.03 BTC caused problems for users, but the service raised the threshold to 0.05 BTC and 0.1 ETH . This is reported by Cryptovest.

In addition, financial pyramids are often promoted under the guise of mining contracts for cloud mining. For last few months, there was a big jump in mining difficulty of many cryptocurrencies, so, old contacts had become unprofitable.

As reported, the reason for the locked funds dates back further - at the beginning of June, so much hashing power was flowing into the Bitcoin network that contracts saw all the mined coins go toward their maintenance fee.

Currently, more and more users who have purchased contracts at earlier stages are facing the fact that they can not withdraw their funds. One of them managed to return the money spent through the bank card operator after filing a corresponding complaint.

To anybody that purchased a Hashflare cloud mining contract with a credit card, it might be possible to get a refund with that credit card as one of my followers tipped me. He bought his contracts at the end of 2017.
 

bccponzi at Twitter

The hash rate of bitcoin increased from 13 EHash / s at the beginning of the year to more than 40 EHash / s in recent months. The difficulty of mining in the present conditions depends on the circumstances of the specific miner. The cost of bitcoin mining for some of them is $ 4,400, while others spend about $ 5,800. However, in 2018, cloudy mining is called an even more dubious occupation than before, especially when it comes to mining bitcoin.