Study: Bitcoin’s Worth to lose $44 Billion by Year’s End

Swiss researchers defined that bitcoin’s market plowback may fall as much as $44 billion, or 35% (at the writing time), by the end of 2018
09 April 2018   1054

If the sums got by ETH Zurich researchers are right, by year’s end bitcoin’s cost  should get a decrease by as much as $44 billion, some 35% below its current $121 billion (as of this writing). The recent study "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?" in join with a Generalized Metcalfe’s Law and the LPPLS Model by Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, et al, of ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics, and Swiss Finance Institute at the University of Geneva, Switzerland, respectively, is  endeavoring to make a prediction.

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

Spencer Wheatley, Professor of Business Risks, ETH Zurich’s Department of Management, Technology and Economics.

Nowadays it is known as the network effect. Mr. Wheatley guesses the number of bitcoin users is declining. The authors of the study confess the appropriate problems in determining the numbers of users. Most enthusiasts have multiple wallet address, and so counting them seems like a deadlock. But if it’s true price declines shed users, it’s likely just as true price increases bring more users. Instead, researchers use market capitalization as a better evaluation for user growth or contraction.

According to the published report, the predicted values for the market cap discover a present over-estimation of at least four times. The Metcalfe support line offer current values around 44, 22, and 33 billion USD, in contrast to the actual current market cap of 170 billion USD. Further, constant user growth in line with the decline of active users starting in 2012, the end of 2018 Metcalfe  forecastings for the market cap are 77, 39, and 64 billion USD respectively, which is still less than half of the present market cap. These results are found to be reliable towards to the chosen fitting window.

So, the current market looks similar to that of early 2014, which was accompanied by a year of sideways and downward dynamics. Some separate fundamental development would need to exist to justify such high valuation, which the scientists are uninformed of.

SEC to Start VanEck-SolidX BTC-ETF Consideration

Starting today, the 45-day countdown to the SEC initial decision was launched
20 February 2019   105

For the first time since August of last year, two proposals on the creation of a Bitcoin-ETF are under consideration by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The application of VanEck and SolidX, issued in cooperation with the Cboe BZX exchange, as expected, was included in the Federal Register issue this Wednesday, with which the 45-day countdown to the SEC initial decision was launched. The application of Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca was published last week.

I … hope that our investment in regulatory and market education, hard work and commitment will be honored when the time comes.

Gabor Gurbacs

Director of digital asset strategy, VanEck

The head of Bitwise’s research department, Matt Hogan, believes that not only firms that have submitted bids to create Bitcoin-ETFs are looking for approvals, but and the entire “extremely fast-growing” crypto industry.

A year ago there was maybe one qualified crypto custodian … and now there are half-a-dozen, and that number will go up from here. A little more than year ago, we didn’t have futures. A year ago we didn’t have nearly as many firms making markets. A few months ago, you didn’t have folks like Fidelity announced in the space. It’s evolving really, really quickly.

Matt Hougan

Global head of research, Bitwise

 As reported, ultimately, however, a bitcoin ETF approval will depend on how companies approach their proposals.